After attending ALIS 2009, I was struck by the heavy dense fog and the somber mood at the event. The confused and befuddled wandered through the mist aimlessly looking for answers as if they had been sideswiped and had not yet regained their footing. They were still dusting themselves off and counting their digits to make sure everything was still “intact”.  In an industry of optimists, it was the worst of times and yet we didn’t know the worst was yet to come. There was yet no “new normal”.  There were only questions and the road we were traveling needed headlights on high beams to somehow see a foot past the fog we were all enveloped in.  There was no clarity and certainly no one with credible advice.  No navigation system could tell us the way to go to get out of the fog…we had to just let it lift. Only those who went through the RTC debacle (like this author) had even the slightest notion of what this type of uncertainty felt like.  We were pretty sure we were in for a long, long year.

Having now attended ALIS 2010 and survived that long, long year, the “new normal” is upon us. As I heard someone put it, ‘the new normal is “not as bad”.  There was cautious optimism in the air. A new reality is emerging and while we don’t precisely know what that new reality is, we seem to think we have a better understanding of the steps it will take in moving the swallowed hippo (CMBS and troubled assets) through the anaconda (pipeline of doom!).  We look forward to emerging from the darkness of stalled and burdened balance sheets to the days where loans can be made again at reasonable leverage levels.

The new normal has asset management and management companies turned into receivers and lawyers into workout specialists. Brokers are coming out of the shell created by BOV mode (broker opinion of value) and are starting to see the glimmer of light that signals deal flow some 12 – 14 months after this all began. Everyone seems to be anticipating the spoils to come. The spoils, however, will be in small doses but steady in coming…at least for the time being from what we heard, or until larger transactions and assets appear from the deep dark holes of bad debt pressure and the inability to dip into more equity & pay your lender what is required to extend for 3-5 years.   All in all, it appears at least that a process is emerging that is understandable and it is putting the kick back in the step of our industry – not to mention returning people to productive and gainful employment.

While the confusion and uncertainty continues, there are signs of clarity peaking faintly through the haze – take the time and energy to tap the resources necessary to make your 2010 opportunity a lower risk and better informed reality.